The "Ice" and "Fire" of the Global Economy: Cooling Energy, Warming Trade

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1. **Middle East tensions ease**: US-Iran negotiations progress; OPEC+ announces a daily output increase of 188,000 barrels for June. WTI crude falls to $100.91/barrel.

2. **Global central banks hold steady**: Fed votes 8–4 to keep rates unchanged (largest dissent since 1992). JPMorgan expects next move to be a rate hike in Q3 2027.

3. **US-EU tariff friction escalates**: Trump announces a 25% tariff on EU cars starting next week; EU threatens retaliation.

4. **US stocks hit new highs**: S&P 500 and Nasdaq close at record levels. Apple reports Q1 revenue of $111.2 billion and a $100 billion buyback.

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