📌 Key Takeaways
- Realized profits for long-term holders (LTHs) are ~220 % today—well below the 300 – 350 % peaks seen in March & December 2024.
- To equal those prior windfalls, BTC/USD would need to reach ~$140,000.
- Price action is attempting to break out of a multi-week downtrend as broader consolidation continues.
📊 Why $140K Matters to LTHs
On-chain analysts at CryptoQuant evaluated the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which compares each coin’s current market value to the price at which it last moved.
- Average realized profit now: ~220 %
- At 2024’s two major highs: 300 – 350 %
With the aggregate LTH cost basis (~$33,800) still far below spot prices, the study concludes that $140,000 is the “magnet” level at which unrealized profits would once again match historic euphoric peaks.
“Although these profits may seem substantial, we’re still far from the levels observed during the tops of this cycle… BTC would need to reach $140K.” — CryptoQuant Quicktake
🐳 Supply Dynamics Still Favor Bulls
- Exchange reserves have slipped below 15 % of circulating supply—seven-year lows—amplifying any demand spikes.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs have logged 15 straight days of net inflows, adding $4.7 B in fresh capital.
- Over-the-counter desks report all-time-low balances, underscoring a tightening float.
Together, these conditions hint that a supply-shock rally toward the $140K–$150K zone is plausible if $100K support continues to hold.
🔭 Technical Outlook: Breakout Watch
Analyst Rekt Capital notes BTC is testing the upper trend-line of a multi-week downtrend dating back to mid-May. A weekly close above that diagonal would set up a classic post-breakout retest scenario—often the launchpad for the next impulsive leg higher.
🛡️ Risk Check: The $100K Line in the Sand
A decisive break below $100K would threaten to liquidate >$6 B in leveraged longs, according to CoinGlass heatmaps. Until that occurs, most strategists see dips being absorbed quickly by institutional bids.
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