XRP Faces Key Test at $2.75
As of late September, XRP has been trading near $2.77 – $2.88, hovering around a critical support zone. Many analysts agree: $2.75 is the price level XRP must hold if it wants to set the stage for an end‑of‑year rally.
Breaking down the technicals:
- That $2.75 zone aligns with the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle formation. If XRP fails below it, we could see a slide toward $2.00.
- Above, resistance around $2.81 (near the 100‑day SMA) may act as a ceiling in the near term.
- If XRP can push past $2.81 decisively, upside targets toward $3.60 – $3.62 become plausible.
- On the demand side, Glassnode’s cost basis heatmap shows a large cluster of XRP holders acquired at ~$2.75, offering some buffer if price tests that zone.
In short: hold $2.75 → fight for $2.81 breakout → target $3.60+. Lose $2.75 → risk deeper correction.
October’s Weak Seasonal History vs. High-Stakes Catalysts
One challenge for bulls is XRP’s performance in October historically. Since 2013, XRP has closed lower in October 7 of 12 times, yielding an average return of –4.58%.
Despite this, Q4 tends to be strong for XRP overall: recent years saw Q4 gains of 240% (2024) and 20% (2023).
2025 might be different: with spot XRP ETF decisions expected between October 18–25 (for applicants like Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, WisdomTree, etc.), XRP is under the spotlight.
If some of these ETF applications gain approval, they could channel fresh institutional capital into XRP.
Meanwhile, whale accumulation is also rising. Analysts note that major holders are quietly buying more XRP in recent days, anticipating regulatory clarity.
Risks Traders Must Watch
- A break below $2.75 could accelerate downside pressure toward $2.50 or lower.
- The “sell the news” effect is real: if ETFs are approved but don’t exceed expectations, XRP might get sold off post‑announcement.
- Macro risks (rate hikes, regulatory surprises) may also crowd out crypto bullishness.
Verdict: Conditional Bullish with a Tight Rope to Walk
XRP’s fate this October hinges on whether it can defend $2.75. If so, the ETF catalysts and buyer demand could launch a meaningful rally — possibly 30%+ toward the $3.60 range. But if that foundation fails, the risks could dominate.
For pragmatic traders, watching ETF verdicts mid‑October and keeping capital exposure in check will likely be the difference between catching the rally or backing out early.
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