🏛️ What Is the “Big Beautiful Bill”?
The U.S. House and Senate have approved President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax-and-spend package, dubbed the “Big Beautiful Bill.” The legislation permanently extends earlier tax cuts, boosts defense and border security outlays, and lifts the debt ceiling by roughly $5 trillion, pushing total U.S. debt toward $40 trillion in 2025. Trump is slated to sign it on July 4.
📈 Why Bitcoin Historically Loves Massive U.S. Spending
When Trump signed a COVID-19 stimulus bill in late 2020, BTC/USD jumped 38 % within weeks. If history rhymes, a similar percentage move from today’s ~$108 K would place Bitcoin above $150 K.
Key Drivers
- Debt Expansion → More fiat in circulation, debasing the dollar.
- Liquidity Surge → Global M2 money supply just notched an all-time high of $55.4 T, and Bitcoin price action tends to follow M2 with a lag.
- Risk-On Sentiment → Fiscal stimulus often lifts equities and crypto together.
🔍 Current Market Setup
Shrinking on-exchange supply and relentless ETF demand create a classic supply-shock cocktail that could accelerate any post-bill rally.
⚠️ Risks: Blow-Off Top Before M2 Peaks?
Analyst Rekt Capital notes Bitcoin may peak months before global liquidity does, echoing previous cycles. Traders should watch the $100 K support—a decisive break could liquidate >$6 B in leveraged longs.
🎯 Targets & Timelines
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