Bitcoin may be on the verge of its next major leg up. After weeks of consolidation, a combination of technical confirmation, on-chain supply tightening, and macro tailwinds is building a strong case for a move toward $107,000.
Here are the three signals that suggest this breakout is real:
1️⃣ Bullish Technical Structure Is Confirmed
Bitcoin has broken out of a multi-week ascending triangle and successfully retested former resistance near $95,000 as support — a textbook bullish pattern.
At the same time, the daily chart is approaching a bullish EMA crossover between the 20-day and 50-day averages. The last time this occurred, BTC rallied over 17% within a month.
These signals suggest that Bitcoin is transitioning from range-bound to trend continuation mode, keeping the measured target near $107,000 firmly in play.
2️⃣ Long-Term Holders Are Selling Less
On-chain data shows that OG holders — coins dormant for over five years — are reducing distribution. The 90-day average of spent outputs has fallen sharply, indicating that long-term holders are choosing to hold, not exit.
This behavior matters because OG selling often caps rallies. With that pressure fading and BTC leaving exchanges at the fastest pace since 2024, supply is tightening — a classic setup for price expansion.
Fewer coins on exchanges + lower selling = structural bullish pressure.
3️⃣ Macro Liquidity Is Turning Favorable
Historically, Bitcoin performs best when global liquidity expands. In 2026, the macro backdrop is shifting:
- The Federal Reserve has ended quantitative tightening
- Global M2 supply is expanding
- Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has turned negative — a pattern that previously preceded 50%+ rallies
This divergence suggests Bitcoin is reasserting itself as a high-beta monetary asset, primed to outperform in a reflationary environment.
What This Means for You
All three layers — charts, on-chain behavior, and macro trends — are aligning. If Bitcoin can reclaim $100,000 as support, the path toward $107K becomes increasingly probable.
This isn’t just a short-term trade setup. It’s a structural shift toward the next phase of the cycle.
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