1. Weak Start to November — Bitcoin Price Pulls Back
Bitcoin (BTC) began the month with a ~2% drop, sliding back toward $107,000 after erasing weekend gains. The recent price action signals that bulls may be losing steam and that downside liquidity is accumulating. The concern: a deeper retest could push BTC toward $98,500 support.
2. Retail Investors Are Stepping Aside
On‑chain data shows a notable retreat among retail investors: smaller wallets are less active, fewer new entrants are buying, and network activity is declining. One indicator suggests that the next large bucket of support could lie near $98,500, where retail buying typically resurfaces.
3. Institutional Demand Fails to Keep Pace
Institutional activity, especially through U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, has pulled back. Data indicates that net inflows have fallen for several days straight, and total institutional purchases have dropped below the amount of newly mined Bitcoin supply — a historically unfavourable signal for bullish momentum.
4. Macroe, Trade & Technical Risks Combine
Several macro factors weigh on BTC this week:
- The ongoing U.S.–China trade deal still has unresolved details, creating uncertainty in risk assets.
- The Federal Reserve’s interest‑rate trajectory remains unclear, with liquidity risk rising if policy stays tight.
- Technically, Bitcoin is facing strong resistance near $112K–$116K, while support levels around $105K–$100K are under threat — a breakdown could open the door toward $98.5K.
5. Seasonality’s “Best Half” vs Reality
Historically, November marks the start of Bitcoin’s best six‑month stretch (often +40%+), but current sentiment is weak. Prediction markets assign only a ~33% chance of BTC finishing the month above $120K. The contrast between seasonal expectation and current indicators raises the odds of sideways or lower movement before a breakout.
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