Bitcoin (BTC) may be on the verge of reaching new all-time highs as early as May, according to market data and institutional activity. Despite bearish signals in derivatives markets, rising ETF inflows, increasing independence from traditional equities, and renewed institutional positioning suggest that Bitcoin’s rally above $100,000 could happen sooner than expected.
Bitcoin Surges 11% in a Week, Reclaims $95K
Between April 20–26, Bitcoin gained 11%, holding steady near $94,000. This strength followed:
- Trump administration easing tariff policies
- Robust corporate earnings reports
- Record $3.1 billion net inflows into spot BTC ETFs in five days
Despite positive momentum, funding rates in BTC perpetual futures turned sharply negative, usually a bearish sign. However, this may have signaled a short squeeze, with over $450 million in shorts liquidated since April 21.
Bitcoin Begins to Decouple from the Stock Market
While Bitcoin’s recent rally somewhat mirrors a 7.1% S&P 500 gain, data suggests BTC is moving independently:
- 30-day BTC/S&P 500 correlation dropped to 29% (down from 60% in early April)
- Bitcoin is no longer behaving like a pure tech-stock proxy
- Investors are beginning to treat BTC as a standalone asset class
Institutional Confidence Growing Despite Retail Skepticism
Retail traders have been cautious:
- Negative funding rates in perpetual futures suggest short-term selling pressure
- Leverage is being used on the bearish side
But institutional behavior says otherwise:
- BTC monthly futures premium rose to a 7-week high of 6.5%
- This is within a neutral-to-bullish range (5%–10%)
- Suggests institutions are increasing long exposure
Gold Fades, Bitcoin Rises as 'Digital Gold'
- Gold hit an ATH of $3,500 on April 22, then pulled back
- BTC, by contrast, remained strong above $90K
- Bolsters the argument that Bitcoin is a long-term inflation hedge, not just a tech-trade
May: The Month for New Bitcoin Highs?
With:
- Strong ETF inflows
- Falling correlation with traditional assets
- Institutional accumulation
- Waning retail skepticism
...Bitcoin has the foundation to potentially break all-time highs in May, possibly pushing past $100,000.
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