In the first quarter of 2026, the cryptocurrency market delivered a performance that caught most participants off guard.
In February, Bitcoin's price fell about 50% from its all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025, hovering around $60,000. Google Trends data showed that global search interest for "Bitcoin going to zero" reached a maximum score of 100 in February, the highest since the collapse of FTX in November 2022. At the same time, alarmist search terms like "Bitcoin is dead" also surged to peaks.
However, hidden within the fear was a glimmer of hope. During the same period, searches for "buy bitcoin" climbed to their highest level in nearly five years. This phenomenon of "fear coexisting with interest" has historically often accompanied market bottom signals.
Entering April, market sentiment has somewhat recovered. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rebounded to a "neutral" reading of 45, with the average BTC holding price around $54,182 per coin. However, geopolitical risks remain a Damoclean sword hanging overhead – the escalation of US-Iran tensions in early April put pressure on Bitcoin along with traditional risk assets like US stocks. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's market cap dominance remains high at around 58%, suppressing the prospect of an altcoin season breakout.
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