On May 1, multiple new global trade rules took effect: China imposed zero tariffs on 53 African nations, the EU scrapped the EUR 150 de minimis customs exemption, and Nigeria stopped using USD for cross-border settlements. Meanwhile, the China-EU EV tariff “soft landing” still leaves actual rates at 17.4%–45.3%.
The Federal Reserve voted 8–4 on April 30 to keep rates unchanged, with odds of a 2026 rate cut virtually zero. Powell will remain as Governor after stepping down as Chair; nominee Warsh’s confirmation passed.
In the Middle East, the UAE exited OPEC+, pushing Brent crude above $110/barrel. The IMF has cut 2026 global growth to 3.1% and warned of stagflation risks.
China’s economy shows a two-speed pattern: manufacturing PMI stayed above 50 (50.3) for a second month, but services PMI fell to 49.4 – the lowest in 40 months.
The Bank of Japan now has a 65% probability of a June rate hike, while the eurozone is firmly in stagflation (3.0% inflation, 0.1% GDP growth).
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