1. BTC Hits New ATH, but the Breakout May Be Delayed
Bitcoin started October on strength, climbing past $125,700 on Coinbase to establish a new all-time high. Yet, not everyone expects the surge to continue. Some forecasts point toward range-bound action before a major directional move.
2. AI Forecasts Low Breakout Probability for October
A proprietary model from CryptoQuant (NBeats Ensemble) suggests that while BTC may stay in the upper half of its range, a full-blown breakout in October is unlikely. The model uses ~400 on-chain features and anticipates continued consolidation between $108,000 and $123,000.
The message? October might be about shoring up support, not blowing past resistance.
3. Support Retests in Focus — $118K Under Watch
Traders expect BTC to retest key support levels:
- The 4‑hour 50 EMA is near $119,250 and rising fast. Some expect a dip toward it before continuing upward.
- Rekt Capital sees $117–118K as a pivotal “mid-range” support zone. A pullback there could bolster confidence.
Any failures below these zones could risk deeper retracements.
4. Macro & Fed Speeches Could Shake Things Up
With the U.S. government shutdown ongoing, key inflation, employment, and economic data releases are delayed. That puts more weight on Fed officials’ speeches this week. Markets will be listening for clues on rate trajectory, dovish pivots, or hawkish signals.
Because of the data vacuum, these speeches may carry outsized influence on risk assets like Bitcoin.
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