U.S. Demand Anchors BTC Above $110K
Bitcoin has managed to remain above $110,000, thanks partly to strong spot demand in the U.S. measured by the Coinbase Premium Index. This metric compares BTC prices on Coinbase to global exchanges—when positive, it often signals U.S. buyers stepping in.
Here’s what the data shows:
- The premium spiked to 0.18, its highest since March 2024, during recent market stresses.
- Such readings suggest large spot orders were absorbing selling pressure in that price zone.
So far, those bids have held.
Accumulation by Short-Term Holders
Further reinforcing upward pressure, on-chain data reveals that short-term holders (STHs)—wallets holding BTC under one month—are aggressively accumulating:
- STH supply rose from ~1.6 million BTC to over 1.87 million BTC in days.
- This behavior suggests dip-buying is alive and well.
However — not all is safe in the demand camp.
⚠️ Long-Idle Coins Move Again
A concerning countercurrent emerged: 7,343 BTC aged between 2–3 years were moved on-chain this week. When older coins wake up, it often signals profit-taking or reallocation from long-term holders — actions that can exert downward pressure.
Even more, Binance’s net taker volume pointed to continued sell-side activity, and the STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) remains below 1, implying many recent spenders are selling at a loss.
🔄 Derivatives Are Heating Up
While spot accumulation is bullish, derivatives markets are setting up for potential volatility:
- ~364,000 BTC was mobilized in exchange internal wallets recently (major flows into Bitfinex, Bybit, Binance)
- These moves likely prepare margin accounts for leveraged positions
- This sets up the potential for both explosive upside and sudden rollback depending on direction bias
This tension—tightening supply vs derivatives gearing—makes the near-term more precarious.
Will $110K Hold? What Could Break It
Potential supporting arguments:
- U.S. spot bids and premium remain strong
- Long-term holders continue removing supply from exchanges
- STH accumulation and “dip buy” culture weakens downside
Risks that could crack $110K:
- A wave of old-coin selling
- Derivative liquidations in the face of a reversal
- Macro or regulatory shock that collapses speculative positions
If $110K fails, the next key zones to watch would be $108K or lower trendline support.
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