Bitcoin’s Quiet Finish May Be a Strength, Not a Weakness
Bitcoin may have disappointed some investors by failing to hit ultra-bullish year-end price targets, but Anthony Pompliano believes that calm could be exactly what protects the market from a severe crash in early 2025.
Speaking on CNBC, the Bitcoin entrepreneur and investor said the current volatility environment makes a dramatic drawdown unlikely.
“Given where the volatility is right now, it would be very surprising that Bitcoin’s volatility has drastically compressed and yet still could get a 70% or 80% drawdown,” Pompliano said.
No Blow-Off Top, No Blow-Up
Historically, Bitcoin’s most severe crashes have followed euphoric blow-off tops — periods of extreme speculation and parabolic price action.
According to Pompliano, that scenario simply hasn’t materialized this cycle.
“We didn’t get a blowoff top that I think people expected at the end of Q3 or beginning of Q4,” he said. “But we also haven’t seen the big 80% drawdown that people normally expect.”
Instead, Bitcoin has traded in a more measured manner, suggesting a maturing market structure.
Zooming Out: Bitcoin’s Long-Term Performance
Pompliano pushed back against short-term disappointment, urging investors to look at Bitcoin’s broader trajectory.
“We have to remember that Bitcoin is up 100% in two years. It’s up almost 300% in three years. It has been compounding,” he said.
Despite failing to reach ambitious targets like $250,000 in 2025, Pompliano described Bitcoin as “a monster in financial markets” when viewed across longer time horizons.
Volatility Compression Goes Largely Unnoticed
While many investors focus on price pullbacks, Pompliano noted that a more important shift has flown under the radar: declining volatility.
Lower volatility can dampen upside excitement, but it also reduces the likelihood of violent downside moves. According to Pompliano, this tradeoff may be frustrating for momentum traders, but it provides structural stability.
Holders may feel “a little bit disappointed on the upside,” he said, but they gain “some degree of safety” on the downside.
Bitcoin Still Faces Skeptics
Not all analysts share Pompliano’s optimism.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has warned that Bitcoin could fall to $60,000 by Q3 2026, while Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macro research, has suggested that 2026 could be a “year off” for Bitcoin, with prices potentially dipping to around $65,000.
These views highlight the ongoing debate over whether Bitcoin is consolidating for another leg higher or entering a longer cooling phase.
A More Mature Market Cycle
What stands out in this cycle is not extreme upside or downside — but restraint.
Bitcoin’s behavior increasingly resembles a macro asset influenced by liquidity, rates and institutional positioning, rather than pure speculative mania.
If Pompliano’s thesis holds, Bitcoin’s lack of a euphoric year-end rally may prove to be a feature, not a flaw — lowering the odds of a dramatic Q1 collapse and setting the stage for steadier long-term growth.
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