Has Bitcoin Been in a Bear Market Since November?
While many investors still expect 2026 to be a growth year for Bitcoin, on-chain data paints a more cautious picture. According to CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, several key metrics suggest that Bitcoin may have already entered a bear market—and has been in it for roughly two months.
Speaking on the Milk Road show, Moreno explained that most indicators in his proprietary Bull Score Index flipped bearish in early November and have yet to recover. The index evaluates Bitcoin’s market health using a combination of network activity, investor profitability, demand strength and liquidity conditions.
The One-Year Moving Average Signals a Trend Shift
One of the most important confirmations, according to Moreno, is technical rather than narrative-driven: Bitcoin’s price falling below its one-year moving average.
The one-year moving average represents Bitcoin’s average price over the past 12 months and is commonly used to identify long-term trend direction. Historically, when Bitcoin trades above this level, market conditions tend to be bullish. When it drops below, prolonged bearish phases often follow.
“For me, the last confirmation is the price going below its one-year moving average,” Moreno said, noting that this has historically aligned with the start of bear markets.
Bitcoin began 2025 around $93,000, surged to a peak above $126,000 in October, and ended the year lower—reinforcing the idea that momentum has shifted.
Why the $56,000–$60,000 Zone Matters
Looking ahead, Moreno believes Bitcoin’s eventual bear market bottom could form between $56,000 and $60,000 sometime in 2026. This projection is based on Bitcoin’s realized price, which reflects the average price at which all circulating BTC last moved on-chain.
In previous bear markets, Bitcoin has often retraced toward its realized price as speculative excess unwinds and long-term holders establish a new cost basis.
Historically:
- Bull markets push price far above realized price
- Bear markets compress price back toward it
If this pattern repeats, the $56K–$60K range becomes a logical area for long-term stabilization.
This Bear Market Looks Different From Past Cycles
Despite the bearish signal, Moreno emphasized that the current downturn is structurally healthier than previous cycles.
A drop from Bitcoin’s all-time high to $56,000 would represent roughly a 55% drawdown, significantly milder than past bear markets that saw declines of 70–80%.
More importantly, the ecosystem has matured:
- No major collapses like Terra, Celsius or FTX
- Stronger balance sheets across major players
- Institutional buyers and ETFs accumulating periodically
- Less panic-driven forced selling
These factors suggest that while Bitcoin may be in a bear market, it is a more orderly, institutionally supported one.
Institutional Demand Is Changing Bear Market Dynamics
One of the biggest differences from earlier cycles is the presence of long-term institutional capital. ETFs, funds and corporate buyers tend to accumulate methodically rather than chase momentum or panic sell.
According to Moreno, this steady demand provides a structural floor under Bitcoin’s price and reduces the severity of drawdowns. Instead of sharp capitulation events, the market may experience longer consolidation phases before the next expansion.
This shift challenges the traditional four-year cycle narrative and suggests Bitcoin’s market behavior is evolving alongside its investor base.
What This Means for Long-Term Bitcoin Holders
If Bitcoin is already in a bear market, the next phase may not be about explosive upside—but about patience, accumulation and risk management. Historically, periods when sentiment turns pessimistic and metrics flip bearish have also laid the foundation for future long-term gains.
For investors with a multi-year horizon, understanding these cycles helps separate short-term noise from structural opportunity.
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