Luke Gromen Dials Back Bitcoin Optimism
Global macro analyst Luke Gromen, long known for grouping Bitcoin with gold as part of the debasement trade, has turned notably cautious on BTC’s near-term outlook.
Speaking on the RiskReversal podcast, Gromen suggested that Bitcoin could be vulnerable to a deeper correction — even floating a possible move toward the $40,000 range in 2026 if macro and narrative pressures intensify.
While he remains structurally bullish on scarce assets in a world of rising debt and fiscal dominance, Gromen argued that Bitcoin currently looks weaker than alternatives such as gold and select equities.
Debasement Thesis Still Intact — But Bitcoin Isn’t Leading
Gromen reaffirmed his belief in the debasement trade — the idea that governments will gradually erode the real value of debt through inflation and currency dilution.
However, he noted that Bitcoin has recently failed to express that thesis as effectively as gold.
“Basically everything but gold and the dollar are likely to get waylaid.”
From his perspective, Bitcoin’s inability to make new highs against gold weakens its position as the preferred hedge in the current phase of the cycle.
Technical Weakness Raises Tactical Concerns
A key part of Gromen’s shift stems from technical signals.
He pointed to:
- Bitcoin breaking below important moving averages
- Lagging relative performance versus gold
- Increased sensitivity to shifting narratives
Rather than signaling a structural failure, Gromen framed Bitcoin as an asset that can be sized down tactically, even if the long-term thesis remains intact.
For longtime followers, this represents a notable tonal change.
Quantum Computing Narratives Enter the Conversation
Another factor weighing on sentiment is the growing discussion around quantum computing risk.
While most cryptographers argue that practical quantum attacks on Bitcoin remain distant, the narrative itself has begun to influence investor psychology.
Gromen suggested that Bitcoin is more exposed to narrative-driven shifts than gold, particularly when combined with macro uncertainty and risk-off conditions.
Macro Headwinds Add to the Pressure
Gromen’s comments arrive amid a broader backdrop of macro unease:
- Questions about the sustainability of post-ETF Bitcoin gains
- Weakening US labor and consumer data
- Valuation concerns across risk assets
- Uncertainty surrounding AI-driven growth narratives
Together, these factors have dampened risk appetite — and Bitcoin has not been immune.
Bitcoin Analysts Push Back on the Bear Case
Not everyone is convinced by Gromen’s near-term pessimism.
Several Bitcoin-focused analysts pushed back, arguing that:
- Lagging performance versus gold often occurs mid-cycle
- Broken moving averages frequently appear during consolidations, not tops
- Quantum risk remains largely speculative
Onchain analyst Checkmate criticized the reliance on social-media narratives rather than underlying data, while others framed Gromen’s view as a trade on perception rather than fundamentals.
ETF Flows and the Long-Term View
Market data paints a more balanced picture.
After notable outflows in November, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have returned to modest net inflows in December, suggesting institutional interest hasn’t disappeared.
Importantly, Gromen himself did not abandon Bitcoin’s role in the debasement trade. Instead, his comments underscore a more nuanced position:
- Structurally bullish on scarce assets
- Tactically cautious on Bitcoin
- More favorable toward gold in the near term
A Tactical Pause, Not a Capitulation
Rather than signaling the end of Bitcoin’s macro narrative, Gromen’s stance highlights a reality often overlooked in crypto discourse: even long-term believers adjust exposure when conditions change.
Whether Bitcoin ultimately revisits $40,000 or resumes its upward trend will depend on how macro forces, narratives and liquidity evolve — but the debate itself reflects a maturing market increasingly influenced by global capital flows, not just crypto-native optimism.
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