Bitcoin has surged more than 21% since its November lows, reigniting optimism across the crypto market. But beneath the surface, onchain analysts are sounding the alarm: this rally may be eerily similar to the 2022 bear market bounce — a move that ultimately failed and led to deeper losses.
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin remains below its 365-day moving average, a level historically used to confirm whether the market is in a bull or bear phase. In past cycles, every sustained bull run required BTC to reclaim this long-term trendline. Today, that line sits near $101,000.
In 2022, Bitcoin dropped below the same yearly average, rallied sharply, and was rejected — triggering another leg down. The current structure is nearly identical.
“Bitcoin has risen 21% in what appears to be a bear market rally,” CryptoQuant noted.
“In 2022, price rallied 47% after breaking below the yearly average — and still failed.”
Why $101,000 Matters
The $101K zone is no longer just psychological resistance. It is:
- The 365-day moving average
- A convergence point of multiple technical ceilings
- A line between “relief rally” and “trend reversal”
If Bitcoin fails to reclaim this level, history suggests the market may be setting up for another distribution phase — where smart money sells into strength.
Rising Exchange Inflows Signal Caution
Another red flag: Bitcoin flowing into exchanges has surged to multi-month highs. Historically, increased inflows often precede selling pressure.
CryptoQuant reports:
- 7-day average inflows near 39,000 BTC
- Highest since late 2025
- A classic sign of pre-positioning for exits
This does not guarantee an immediate crash — but it does suggest that large holders are preparing for volatility.
What This Means for Investors
This environment favors discipline over emotion:
- If BTC reclaims and holds above $101K, the bear-market narrative weakens dramatically.
- If BTC rejects again, the market could revisit deeper support zones — potentially in the $70K–$65K range.
Long-term conviction in Bitcoin remains intact. But short-term price action may still punish overconfidence.
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