With only one week left until the opening match at the Azteca Stadium in Mexico City on the morning of June 12th (Beijing time), the 2026 USA-Canadian World Cup, expanded to 48 teams, is about to kick off. According to Opta's supercomputer analysis of 10,000 simulations, **Spain leads the odds of winning with a 16.1% probability, followed closely by France at 13.0%, with England (11.0%) and Argentina (10.7%) ranking third and fourth respectively.** Spain is not only the biggest favorite to win the tournament but also the only team with a probability exceeding 50% (52.1%) of reaching the quarterfinals.
Goldman Sachs, using a different Monte Carlo simulation model, offered a slightly different prediction, suggesting Spain has a 26% chance of winning, tied with France and defending champions Argentina. Meanwhile, a German economist model, which has accurately predicted the previous three World Cups (2014 Germany, 2018 France, 2022 Argentina), predicts a new champion will emerge.
### 48 Team Grouping Overview
This World Cup expands to 48 teams for the first time, divided into 12 groups (A to L). The top three teams from each group will compete for a place in the Round of 32—the top two teams from each group qualify directly, while the remaining eight spots will be awarded to the eight best third-placed teams from the 12 groups. The draw results are as follows:
**Group A**: Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Czech Republic
**Group B**: Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar, Switzerland
**Group C**: Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, Scotland
**Group D**: USA, Paraguay, Australia, Turkey
**Group E**: Germany, Curaçao, Ivory Coast, Ecuador
**Group F**: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia
**Group G**: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand
**Group H**: Spain, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay
**Group I**: France, Senegal, Iraq, Norway
**Group J**: Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan
**Group K**: Portugal, Democratic Republic of Congo, Uzbekistan, Colombia
**Group L**: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama
### Group A | Host Country Gets a Winning Start
Mexico, with home advantage, received an 87.2% chance of advancing from the group stage from the Opta supercomputer. South Africa, the Czech Republic, and South Korea in the same group are all unlikely to challenge Mexico's home advantage. Mexico is not only virtually guaranteed to top the group, but also has a chance to surpass their previous World Cup record of being eliminated in the quarterfinals. South Korea is the strongest contender for second place, with a 70.1% chance of advancing.
### Group C | Brazil's Revenge Match Imminent
The script from the quarterfinals of the Qatar World Cup four years ago is about to repeat itself – Morocco eliminated Brazil 1-0 to advance to the semifinals, and now the two teams meet again in Group C. Morocco is no longer a dark horse; their defensive resilience and organizational discipline have earned them respect in world football. Ancelotti's Brazil team is led by Vinicius and Rafinha on the wings, and Neymar's inclusion adds an unpredictable element to the Seleção. Neymar faces immense pressure in the starting lineup competition due to inconsistent form, but his unique creativity is irreplaceable in the Brazilian squad. Brazil's advancement is almost a certainty, but whether they can defeat Morocco and exact revenge will determine who tops the group.
### Group F | A True Group of Death
If you're asking which group in this World Cup is the most closely contested, it has to be Group F. The Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, and Tunisia are all evenly matched, and any match could determine their fate. The Netherlands are considered the group's top favorites, with Opta's supercomputer giving them an 88.2% chance of advancing. Their attack, led by Depay and Gakopo, gives them a clear advantage on paper. However, Japan is no pushover; their victories over Germany and Spain in the previous World Cup have instilled in them a formidable mental fortitude. Sweden's Isak and Kulusevski form one of the sharpest attacking lines in Northern Europe, while Tunisia is known for its solid defense and fast counter-attacks. The Netherlands and Japan are expected to finish as the top two teams in the group and advance.
### Group H | Spain Advances Easily, Uruguay Close Behind
Group H, with Spain, is unlikely to produce any upsets. Cape Verde, in the same group, is making its first-ever appearance in the World Cup finals, while Saudi Arabia has repeatedly exposed its weaknesses in competitive matches. Opta data shows Spain has a 75.3% probability of securing the top spot in their group, with a near 100% chance of advancing. The only team that can rival Spain on paper is Uruguay. Bielsa's Azzurri boast stars like Núñez, Araujo, and Valverde, possessing a tightly organized defense and highly efficient counter-attacks, enough to give any strong team a headache. They are expected to advance as the second-placed team in the group. For De la Fuente's La Roja, the group stage is merely a warm-up – their true strength lies in their 52.1% chance of reaching the quarterfinals and 16.1% chance of winning the title.
### Group I｜Mbappe vs. Haaland: A Premature Change of Throne
While France dominates Group I, the world's attention is focused on the other match in the group: the direct clash between Mbappe and Haaland. France's star-studded attack, under Deschamps' leadership, is incredibly potent; the speed and creativity of Mbappe, Dembélé, and Olise are terrifying for any defense. Didier Deschamps confirmed at the pre-match press conference that Kylian Mbappé is in "excellent physical condition" and will lead the French team to the World Cup in good health.
Meanwhile, in Norway's journey back to the World Cup after 28 years, Erling Haaland is undoubtedly the core of the team. His terrifying efficiency of scoring 55 goals in 49 appearances for the national team has instilled fear in all opponents. With Martin Ødegaard orchestrating the midfield, Norway has the potential to upset any strong team. Another point of interest in this group is Senegal, a strong African team that is also competitive. Iraq is the group's newest team, making its first appearance on the World Cup stage after eliminating several strong opponents.
### Group J｜Argentina's Smooth Path and Messi's Last Dance
Defending champions Argentina drew a favorable group. With Algeria, Austria, and Jordan in the same group having relatively limited strength, Argentina should have little difficulty advancing as group winners. Multiple sources have confirmed that Messi left the Miami International match early on May 24th due to discomfort in his left leg. He was diagnosed with a mild hamstring strain and is currently following a personalized rehabilitation plan developed by the Argentine coaching staff – the core idea being "complete rest, individual training, and gradual resumption of training under strict monitoring" to ensure he is physically ready for the World Cup opener. It is understood that Messi's training focus has shifted from high-intensity physical conditioning to rhythm control, off-the-ball movement, and maintaining muscle flexibility. As long as Messi is on the field, the Pampas Eagles always exude the aura of champions.
### Group K｜Cristiano Ronaldo's Sixth Journey
The 41-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo will be making his sixth World Cup appearance, tying Messi for the most in football history. Portugal's draw is also favorable; both the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uzbekistan in their group are World Cup newcomers, while Colombia, although possessing some strength, has an aging squad. Some experts predict Portugal will start their opening match with a victory of 3 goals or more. Under Martinez's tutelage, Portugal's tactical system has matured, with the formidable midfield and attack of Bernardo Silva and Bruno Fernandes providing a continuous supply of ammunition for Ronaldo. Some mathematical models have even predicted Portugal's path to the final. This tournament could very well be Ronaldo's last chance to conquer the World Cup.
### Group L | England's Test
Group L is one of the strongest groups overall. While England's star-studded attack is arguably far superior to its opponents on paper, the experienced Croatian and physically powerful Ghana are tough nuts to crack. England's qualification is almost guaranteed, but the group winner remains uncertain. Kane has scored 61 goals for Bayern Munich this season, winning the European Golden Boot with absolute dominance. If England wins, he believes he will be a strong contender for the Ballon d'Or. Furthermore, Kane only needs 3 more goals to surpass Lineker (10 goals) and become England's all-time top scorer in World Cup history.
### Dark Horse Observation | Japan, South Korea, Ivory Coast, and Norway Worth Watching
The new format, expanding to 48 teams, creates more fertile ground for upsets. Ivory Coast and Ecuador are considered top dark horse contenders by multiple media outlets – both teams possess the potential to qualify from Group G and even pull off an upset against a traditional powerhouse. Japan's goal may seem unrealistic, but their technical style and team discipline have been proven in numerous major tournaments. Norway's dark horse potential should not be underestimated either; Haaland's explosiveness and Odegaard's creativity are enough to tear apart any defense. Furthermore, Switzerland, also from Group G, is considered a potential dark horse team due to their balanced squad and relatively favorable group draw.
### Golden Boot Race | Mbappe and Kane Lead Five-Way Contest
The most intense suspense in this year's Golden Boot race will unfold between Mbappe, Kane, Haaland, and Messi. Mbappe is firmly in first place in the odds (+600) across major bookmakers, and France's strong overall strength means he can go further and have more opportunities to score goals. Following closely behind is Kane (+700), whose terrifying form this season at Bayern Munich, scoring 61 goals in 51 appearances, is almost superhuman; his goal-scoring ability is already recognized worldwide.
More noteworthy is Messi (+1200), who still possesses the talent to change games in his sixth World Cup, and Argentina's schedule provides him with ample playing time. Haaland (+1400), although a first-time participant, has a record of 55 goals for the national team, suggesting he could deliver a "four-goal haul" performance in the World Cup finals at any time. The 18-year-old Spanish prodigy Yamal, with odds of +1800, is close behind and considered the most worthwhile choice.
### Knockout Stage Prediction | Messi vs. Ronaldo May Happen in the Quarter-Finals
Based on the knockout stage bracket, the most anticipated chapter for football fans worldwide is likely to unfold in the quarter-finals: if both Argentina and Portugal top their groups and advance to the round of 16, the two teams will face off in the quarter-finals. At that time, Messi and Ronaldo, two legends who have dominated world football for nearly two decades, will face off on the World Cup knockout stage—possibly for the last time, and perhaps only time. Whoever wins this ultimate showdown, the "Twilight of the Gods," within 90 minutes will be just two victories away from the World Cup trophy.
Meanwhile, the journey of last year's runners-up, France, is described as "hell mode"—they could face Germany in the round of 16, the Netherlands in the quarterfinals, and most likely Spain in the semifinals. If they can reach the final, Deschamps' team deserves the World Cup trophy.
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