The 2026 USA-Mexico World Cup will kick off on June 11th. This is the first time in World Cup history that the tournament has expanded to 48 teams, drastically changing the format. The format has been adjusted to 12 groups, with the top two teams from each group and the eight best third-placed teams (32 teams in total) advancing to the knockout stage, significantly increasing the margin for error.
## Qualifying Predictions
**Group A:** Host Mexico and South Korea are expected to advance together, while the Czech Republic is likely to advance as one of the best third-placed teams. **Group B:** Switzerland tops the group, ahead of Canada. **Group C:** Brazil leads the group, while Morocco's strong defense is expected to secure second place. **Group D:** Host USA is first, followed closely by Turkey. **Group E:** Germany advances with three wins out of three, while Ecuador is vying for second place. **Group F:** The Netherlands tops the group, while Japan secures second place thanks to its deep squad of players playing in Europe. **Group G:** Belgium maintains its top position thanks to the lingering strength of its golden generation, while Egypt is second. **Group H:** Spain leads the pack, with Uruguay close behind. **Group I:** France's top spot is a foregone conclusion, but the direct confrontation between two of the world's best strikers, Mbappe and Haaland, is the biggest highlight of the group stage. **Group J:** Defending champions **Argentina** have secured a comfortable place in the knockout stage. **Group K:** Portugal, led by Ronaldo, is at the top, while Colombia is a potential upset. **Group L:** England and Croatia will face off in a rematch of the 2018 semi-final, making this group highly unpredictable. Additionally, teams like Norway and Morocco have the potential to advance as one of the best third-placed teams.
## Championship Winning Probability Ranking
According to Opta's final supercomputer simulation, **Spain** leads with a 16.08% probability of winning, **France** is second with 12.78%, and **England** is third with 11.01%. Defending champions **Argentina** are fourth with 10.02%, **Portugal** is fifth with 6.84%, **Brazil** is sixth with 6.48%, and **Germany** is seventh with 5.66%. **Norway** has been identified by CCTV's AI as the "biggest dark horse," with a 3.36% chance of winning the World Cup.
## Predicted Teams for the Championship Winners
**Argentina (4-3-3)**: Messi embarks on his sixth World Cup journey, forming a trident with Alvarez and Almada. Expected Starting Lineup: E. Martinez; Molina, C. Romero, Otamendi, Tagliafico; Enzo, Paredes, McAllister; Messi, Almada, Alvarez.
**Spain (4-3-3)**: A European champion squad, led by Barcelona's golden generation of Pedri and Gavi alongside Yamal: Unai Simon; Carvajal, Laporte, Le Normand, Cucurella; Rodri, Pedri, Gavi; Yamal, Morata, Ferran Torres.
**France (4-2-2-2)**: Mbappe leads the attack, with Kante also included. Predicted lineup: Maignan; Koundé, Saliba, Upamecano, Theo; Choameni, Kante; Dembélé, Olise; Mbappé, Muani.
**England (4-2-3-1)**: Kane, Bellingham. Predicted lineup: Pickford; Reece James, Konsa, Gue, Hall; Rice, Elliott Anderson; Saka, Bellingham, Rodgers; Kane.
**Brazil (4-2-3-1)**: Ancelotti coach, Neymar included. Predicted lineup: Alisson; Wesley Franca, Marquinhos, Gabriel, Danilo; Casemiro, Paqueta; Rafinha, Neymar, Vinicius; Enderik.
## Dark Horse Highlights
**Norway** returns to the World Cup after 28 years, with Haaland and Odegaard providing the attacking ceiling. CCTV AI identifies them as the biggest dark horse. Japan boasts a European-based squad with over 80% of its players, possessing mature techniques and tactics, and a proven track record of upsets. Morocco retains its core players from the previous World Cup semi-final, and its formidable defense should not be underestimated.
This World Cup will open on June 11th, with the final held on July 19th at the Metropolitan Stadium in New York. 48 teams will compete for the World Cup trophy under a new format.
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